Known Unknowns
Embracing Uncertainty in Design
Did you know the average design project involves juggling over 50 different variables? Many of these variables are completely unknown until the project is well underway. That’s pretty mind-blowing. This level of complexity presents a huge challenge for designers. They have to navigate a sea of uncertainties to deliver successful outcomes.
The situation gets even trickier with legacy systems or within large organisations. Designers have to manage stakeholders and collaborate with cross-functional teams. Each additional person or system introduces new layers of complexity. Navigating through the unknowns is essential. It's like juggling, but it's part of the job.
Designers constantly juggle chaos and order. Eduardo Hernandez gets it. In his article "Designing Against Complexity,” he talks about just that. He’s a seasoned product designer at American Specialty Health. For him, simplicity isn't just nice to have. It's crucial. Solutions need to be clear and uncluttered.
Complexity and interdependencies bring unpredictability and volatility. Trying to make something complex do what you want is often far too difficult and unreliable over time.
Designing against complexity means that your first line of defense against solving complex problems is working to avoid complexity altogether, just like the Ohio plant did.
Here’s the kicker: proposing simple solutions in complex design projects can sometimes feel uncomfortable. Or worse, it can even be deemed foolish, especially in the face of industry trends, organisational hurdles, and hype (cough 2x, AI!).
Designers need to approach complex projects with a methodical deconstruction of uncertainties by systematically identifying the unknowns. They need a plan. This way, designers can see problems before they explode. It makes surprises easier to handle.
The Rumsfeld Matrix
The Rumsfeld Matrix, named after former U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, originated in high-stakes environments like defense and governmental strategic planning. Managing uncertainties is crucial for decision-making in these areas. He popularised the term “unknown unknowns” while answering a question about Iraq's government and the supply of weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups.
This matrix can serve as an invaluable tool for designers. Picture it slicing through the haze of confusion, neatly sorting out everything into clear buckets: what we know, what we don't know, and what we don’t know we don’t know. Pretty neat, right?
Known knowns: Things we know that we know
Facts, assumptions, and information we are aware of and understand. These form the basis of our knowledge and decision-making.
Known unknowns: Things we know that we don't know
Factors or questions we are aware of but don't fully understand. These represent gaps in our knowledge that need to be addressed through research or investigation.
Unknown knowns: Things we know but don't realize we know
Information or insights we have but don't realise or have overlooked. These can be uncovered through reflection, discussion, or consultation with others.
Unknown unknowns: Things we don't know that we don't know
Factors or risks we are not aware of and cannot predict. These represent the highest level of uncertainty and potential risk.
By categorising uncertainties, designers manage resources and attention more efficiently. This keeps them ahead in their projects. They focus on what truly matters—some aspects need exploration, others need understanding, and a few might be best avoided. Recognising different uncertainties allows for crafting better strategies.
This leads to effective risk management and smoother problem-solving. Being prepared and making smart choices turns challenges into opportunities. That's what sets the great apart from the good.
Starting a project
Starting a project can be both exciting and daunting. First things first: identify the "known unknowns." These are the tricky bits we know exist but don’t fully understand just yet. You know, like existing user behaviour or technical constraints.
Stakeholder management? Yep, that's on the list too. Then there are the ever-shifting priorities, budget fluctuations, hidden agendas, and the constant ebb and flow of tech and market trends.
So, how do we handle all these uncertainties? Simple (sort of). It's about staying proactive rather than reactive. By zeroing in on these known unknowns from the get-go, you simplify the complex. And guess what? That keeps everyone sane and the project on track.
For instance, maintaining regular communication with stakeholders helps stay updated on changing priorities and prepares designers to adapt quickly.
💡 Action tip:
Here's a practical tip for dealing with uncertainties: use tools like ChatGPT to prompt yourself with some critical questions. Ask things like,
"What don't I know that I need to find out? What's the biggest source of uncertainty here? What's most likely to go wrong?" Doing this can help you uncover hidden uncertainties and get ahead of potential issues.
Another great strategy is scenario planning. Create different contingency plans based on the unknowns you’re aware of. Think through various scenarios and how you’d handle each one. This kind of planning can boost your decision-making skills and make you more resilient against surprises. Got it? Perfect! Now you're ready to tackle uncertainties with confidence.
Conclusion
The Rumsfeld Matrix is a nifty tool for designers. It helps them tackle uncertainties and manage risks. Picture it as a roadmap for navigating the unknown.
In design, uncertainty is the only constant. Embrace it. Decode complexities. Navigate the unpredictable.
For your next project, think ahead. Be prepared. Address those tricky known unknowns. Manage unpredictables with confidence.